For nearly three decades, various projections have pegged Surrey to become British Columbia’s most populous city, surpassing the Metro Vancouver region’s namesake city of Vancouver.These projections are based on the regional district’s new medium-growth scenario of population growth, which is deemed to be the baseline and the most likely scenario. The regional district last created an updated forecast in late 2024, but it was updated in Summer 2025 to better account for the federal government’s changes to immigration levels and non-permanent residents over the next few years.
Under the medium-growth forecast, Surrey’s population will rise from 701,000 in 2024 to 771,000 in 2031, 897,000 in 2041, and 1.005 million in 2051. In contrast, Vancouver’s population will grow from 758,000 in 2024 to 805,000 in 2031, 878,000 in 2041, and 953,000 in 2051.
This eventuality is to be expected, given that Surrey’s land area is 316 sq. km. — it is the largest municipal jurisdiction in Metro Vancouver based on geography. This immense space enables the potential for relatively flexible growth, with the majority of this area also permitted for urban growth under the regional district’s land use strategy.
